Usman Ansari

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Author, journalist, military and political analyst, photographer.

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Monday, February 27, 2012

Pakistan's first bittersweet Oscar

Massive congratulations are due to those behind the documentary that won Pakistan's first ever Oscar! They did a brilliant job and deserve many more accolades than they will undoubtedly receive.

You can watch the trailer for Saving Face here

It's just a shame and is somewhat bittersweet that it was a documentary about such inexcusable barbarity. The perpetrators of such vile wickedness deserve no less than the death penalty. Anything less and they're getting off lightly in my mind.

As part of efforts to cure society of this vile cancer, I think this film should be shown in schools. I think would be a quite powerful tool in that respect.

The cycle of savagery needs to be broken.

9:04 pm pkt 

Upgrading the F-22P

I was lucky enough to attend AMAN11 last year off Karachi, and spent the day onboard PNS Zulfiquar, the lead ship of the Pakistan Navy's F-22P/Zulfiquar/Sword Class frigates. Her two active sister-ships, Shamsheer and Saif, were also present. So I got a good look at the ships both from being onboard and observing them from a distance. I was in two minds about the class before I went onboard Zulfiquar. By no means was I alone by holding such views, but I thought a few things could have been done differently to get more out of the design. However, on the whole I was pleasantly surprised by what I saw firsthand. I think they are good ships. Their crews are well-trained and motivated. They are eager to prove themselves and are proud of serving on what amount to the first ever new-build major surface combatants to enter Pakistani service.

The requirement was for a good multi-purpose general patrol frigate, and I think Pakistan has acquired a pretty decent all-round design for what it is that fits this need very well. Even though the F-22P is an evolution of the earlier Jiangwei-II frigate design, I think it is a good frigate that fits Pakistan's operational requirements fairly well. I do however think that the design was constrained by the limits of Chinese technology at the time it was finalised, and also the need to get the ships into service. Therefore, there are some fairly obvious shortcomings in the design and systems, and consequently room for improvement that shall no doubt be made once they start being cycled through a deep refit. Some things have already been mentioned as being highly likely, but from what I saw I'd like to give an opinion on possible improvements that can be made.

I think it is worthwhile giving a short explanation of the wartime environment in which Pakistani ships are likely to find themselves first. Pakistani navy warships will find themselves operating in a very high anti-ship missile threat environment where large numbers of advanced and highly capable subsonic and supersonic anti-ship missiles can be launched from enemy air, sea, and subsurface platforms. Possible co-ordinated attacks by these enemy platforms could see the smaller number of Pakistani warships overwhelmed by sheer numbers alone. In this environment Pakistani warships will have to conduct ASW in search of Indian submarines that will be capable of launching land attack cruise missiles, and also have a good capability to conduct ASuW. Consequently, they have to have a good defence against these types of threat. I would therefore generally place ASuW at secondary importance to ASW with regards Pakistani ships for the simple reason that no one will be expecting Pakistani warships to steam towards a mass of Indian warships (many if not most of which have twice the number of anti-ship missiles compared to Pakistani surface combatants), and start exchanging salvos of missiles. In such a scenario Pakistani warships would almost definitely end up getting sunk to the last ship. For that reason it's not a realistic scenario. A combination of the limited number of Pakistani anti-shipping strike aircraft, surface ships, and especially submarines, will help to deter Indian surface warships and encourage them to maintain their distance. However, this is not the case for Indian submarines any more than it is for Pakistani submarines in reverse. We can expect submarines of both nations to be used quite aggressively. So conducting robust and capable ASW in a high missile threat environment is something Pakistani ships will have to face, and you can see recognition of that in elements of the F-22P design. It is somewhat reminiscent of the threat posed to the Royal Navy in the Atlantic at the latter stages of the Cold War, (ASW in a high missile threat environment). So it's worthwhile to look at how the British responded to the threat in the design of their principal ASW warships of the period. They came up with the Type-22 Broadsword and later Type-23 Duke Class frigates.

So what can be improved for the F-22P? The rather obvious shortcoming that everyone can see is the SAM armament. Eight FM-90 SAMs with no reloads are not going to do much. The FM-90 probably represents the maximum the Chinese can squeeze out of the old French Crotale design, which was probably never very good to start off with. The irony to be seen in this regard at AMAN11 was that the PLAN's two Type-054 Jiangkai-I Class frigates were present, and they are armed with the same SAM system. The crucial difference is that the Chinese ships are larger and are fitted with a reloading system (the hatch of which can clearly be seen on the deck behind the FM-90 launcher) that carries at least a further 16 missiles. There was simply no room for a reloading system on the F-22P, so eight SAMs is all it could be fitted with. The maximum engagement range of the FM-90 missile is 15km according to the manufacturer, CNPMIEC. However, that is for a helicopter target. When you start to examine the figures for anti-ship missiles the maximum engagement range starts to fall quite markedly to 11km for a subsonic anti-ship missile and 7km for a supersonic anti-ship missile. Especially with regards supersonic missiles this is really taking a big risk, because if for whatever reason one SAM misses, there is limited engagement time for another shot, and even more crucially a very restricted number of SAMs meaning they could soon be exhausted.

The saving grace of the F-22P design, and one which I thought was impressive, is the CIWS fit of two Type-730B systems, atop the hangar. They are well placed to give fairly robust last-ditch protection against all aerial threats, be they subsonic or supersonic. This was one of things that intrigued me before my visit, why had the PN opted for the Type-730B CIWS that adopts an ‘off-platform' approach to the weapon's sensors? Both CIWS mounts are actually controlled by larger, more powerful search and fire control radars than on the standard Type-730 CIWS. These are visible on the centreline between the two Type-730Bs, and backed up by an electro-optical sensor ‘ball'. Apparently, this approach allows the CIWS to be controlled by more powerful sensors and engage threats on either beam with one being controlled by the electro-optical sensor, and the other by the CIWS fire control radar in case of a saturation attack. When both FCR and electro-optical sensor are controlling one mount the combination of both types of sensor controlling the fire of the CIWS increases the accuracy of fire as the electro-optical sensor can more accurately track the 30mm rounds. Though this is very impressive, the CIWS obviously should not be the main defence against aerial threats, which may very quickly become the case once the eight FM-90 SAMs are exhausted. The CIWS is supposed to be a last ditch defence against such threats. There is of course the dual purpose AK-176M 76.2mm (an improved Chinese variant of the Russian AK-176 - which I experienced being fired to good effect during the gunnery trials and was surprisingly loud from my perch on the bridge wing, and then later the bridge roof). It is quite capable of shooting down missiles, but has limited capability compared to the CIWS (though admittedly it may be able to do so at a longer range than a CIWS), and even less so when compared to a SAM. If trying to shoot down an incoming anti-ship missile however, the AK-176M should really be considered a back up weapon to be used out of desperation in conjunction with other weaponry, rather than something which can be relied on to fully protect the ship against such threats. If the Chinese built example shares most technical characteristics of its Russian forebear, it is likely that when fired at its maximum rate of fire it will need a certain period (about half an hour with the Russian gun) to cool down afterwards. Either way, it is a good piece of kit, so I'm not criticising it. I'm merely saying in the case of anti-ship missile attack it would very much be a last ditch weapon that was fired in addition to the CIWS.

So what can be done? In the absence of a SAM type from any other source due to a lack of funds, I think a Chinese option is the only likely candidate at present to replace the FM-90. The type that has hitherto been mentioned is the HQ-16. The HQ-16 is Chinese development of the Russian SA-N-12 ‘Grizzly', and by all means the Chinese seem to be quite pleased with it considering it forms the principal AAW armament for its growing number of Type-054A Jiangkai-II Class frigates. By all accounts it is a capable missile. However, I have my doubts about whether the HQ-16 is the right choice for the F-22P. It is a fairly large and bulky missile to fit on a frigate the size of the F-22P. I think at a very maximum it may be possible to fit 16 missiles in a VLS in the space currently taken up by the FM-90 launcher, but perhaps even that after some considerable ‘surgery' which could see that section of the deck removed entirely to save weight. I have two concerns however, the number of missiles may be too small, and how can all the associated electronics and sensors be installed? It is after all not merely a case of fitting the VLS cells into the space provided. I'm sure that can be done, but all the associated electronics also have to be shoehorned into place. Electronics and associated machinery are shrinking all the time with technological advancements the way they are going. However, I am currently unsure this can be done with the complete HQ-16 package to the extent that it can be installed on the F-22P. The other concern I have is numbers. Even eight HQ-16s would be better than the current FM-90s, but there really needs to be a worthwhile number onboard, and I don't think 16 SAMs (a number I'm guessing would be technically feasible considering the space available and a roughly approximation of the space taken up by the HQ-16 VLS on the Type-054As) is really going to be enough. Considering that these can't be reloaded at sea, a worthwhile weapon load needs to be carried, and I think that is definitely going to be in the region of 32 rather than 16.

In the absence of being able to have 32 HQ-16s on the F-22P I think other alternatives should be considered. The RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile, (which was itself designed to counter supersonic threats) would have been ideal, and I think a 32-cell VLS would fit in the available space, plus I don't doubt that the associated sensors and electronics could be fitted. That obviously isn't going to happen though. The South Africans have for a while been trying to interest Pakistan in the Umkhonto IR SAM, and even test fired a missile in the presence of former CNS Admiral Afzal Tahir before he left office. The ability of the Umkhonto IR to cope with supersonic threats is uncertain however, and the range (approx 12km) is perhaps a bit of a letdown. A more advanced variant (considering the missile continues to be developed) may still be an option if an alternative isn't found, but it really depends on the performance of the missile and of course, cost. There may be scope for another Chinese option however, a VLS variant of the PL-12/SD-10. There have been all sorts of rumours over the years about a VLS variant of the PL-12/SD-10. Initial speculation was that the Type-054A would be armed with the missile. Obviously that didn't happen, but I think there is scope for such a variant of the PL-12/SD-10. Despite the considerable Chinese naval expansion, especially the continued construction of Type-054A Class frigates, there are still 14 Jiangwei series frigates in service (four Jiangwei-I and ten Jiangwei-II). They appear to be currently being put through an incremental upgrade programme that is seeing the eight round HQ-7 SAM (more likely to be FM-90 or domestic variant thereof) replacing the six round HQ-61 SAM that was fitted in earlier units. The Jiangwei frigate design, the Type-053H2G/Type-053H3, formed the basis for the F-22P. So I think there is scope here to interest the Chinese in a VLS variant of the PL-12/SD-10 if it is not already something which is actively being developed. If nothing else, it could also be an export weapon with which Chinese designed and built frigates could be armed with.

Due to the smaller dimensions and weight of PL-12/SD-10 in comparison to the HQ-16 I think it would definitely be possible to have a larger number of SAMs installed in a VLS module. I admit I don't know if there would be considerable space and weight penalties to pay with regards the associated electronics, but I'm guessing there may not be purely on the basis that the LY-60N was fitted to three of Pakistan's Type-21s, and that weapon system fit was only really constrained by having that huge launcher in ‘B' position. The associated electronics and systems seem to have been fitted without too much trouble, and considering the equivalent for the PL-12/SD-10 may be more compact, I think it's reasonable to assume it may not be too difficult to install the whole PL-12/SD-10 VLS variant package on the Jiangwei and F-22P Class frigates, (or at least I see it as more straight forward with the latter). How many PL-12/SD-10 missiles could be fitted to the F-22P as a replacement for the FM-90 SAM is really perhaps something which depends on the type of VLS used, but I don't for a moment doubt that it would be more than 16. However, coupled with larger numbers carried, the faster response time of the PL-12/SD-10 SAM system to supersonic threats, and perhaps considerably better performance compared to the FM-90 in terms of engagement range and intercept timings, the SAM shortcomings of the F-22P Class could be rectified.

Given the nature of the anti-ship missile threat however, there is perhaps a further measure that could be taken, and one which can potentially be carried out more easily, fitting the FL-3000N. I'm unsure of the under-deck requirements for the FL-3000N, but I think there is scope to fit a 24-cell launcher either on the bridge roof (though I admit that may not be as straight forward as it seems), or if a PL-12/SD-10-loaded VLS replaces the FM-90 SAM launcher, then in ‘B' position immediately in front of the VLS, but still on that raised deck (if it can be retained) to give the FL-3000N launcher clearance over the main gun, (pretty much where the FM-90 launcher is at present, though slightly further forward). In either position, it would give good forward hemisphere protection in addition to the larger SAMs, AK-176M, and Type-730B CIWS armament. It would add a useful layer of protection between the PL-12/SD-10 and the Type-730B CIWS, and that for comparatively little increase in weight overall. The effectiveness of the FL-3000N is perhaps reflected in the fact that we increasingly see it fitted to newer PLAN warship designs as well as their refitted carrier. So the Chinese at least seem to think it is a mature and capable enough system, even if it may not be as capable as the latest RIM-116 RAM, (with which it is often compared). At the very least if six of these lightweight missiles could be fitted to each Type-730B CIWS mount it would give an extra layer of protection for very little cost. All things considered I think that's probably the most realistic and likely option. However, overall, as time progresses the chances of a far more capable Chinese-origin SAM system to replace the FM-90 increase, so we will really have to wait until the F-22Ps start being cycled through deep refits. They are going to serve under the Pakistani ensign for a very long time (perhaps 30 years or more), so Pakistan will continue to invest in the design to a considerable degree.

Connected with the need to replace the FM-90 SAMs, and no less obvious, is the possibility of replacing the SUR-17 long range air search radar with a modern 3D equivalent. The SUR-17 is the array that looks like a ‘1950s-style TV aerial' on the second mast between the funnel and hangar. It has a range of 310km, but I think it's fairly obvious that as soon as Pakistan can find a suitable replacement it will be replaced, and indeed it has already been mentioned, (semi-officially at least). I suppose it would have an effect on the possibility of a newer more capable SAM fit as any new radar will no doubt be heavier than what it replaces. So there is that to also consider with regards any increases in overall displacement. We shall see I guess.

Anyway, considering the ASW mission however, could there have been scope to squeeze some more out of the design? The main shipboard ASW sensor is the hull-mounted Atlas ASO-94 hull-mounted sonar (with an active range of 15km and a passive range of 48km). There is no other ASW sensor, and there definitely is no Towed Array Sonar (TAS) because the space where it should otherwise be is an open quarterdeck (which is a nice spot to have a smoke if you are so inclined). This may strike people as a curious omission (considering their obvious importance with other navies), and I did ask about it. The PN has in the past trialled such TAS, but found that the local conditions, (where varying degrees of salinity, thermals, and such make ASW very difficult), reduced the effectiveness of the TAS. I think that may well have been more due to a combination of the TAS that were available at the time, and the TAS that were available to the PN when they carried out these trials. The capabilities of the British Sonar-2087 TAS demonstrates that the abilities of such sensors are improving all the time, and in future there may be scope for Pakistan to either procure a capable enough foreign TAS, or develop one indigenously. Marine Systems Limited developed their ‘Slim-Line TAS', which is optimised for local conditions, primarily for submarine use. I don't doubt however that given time and investment they could develop a highly capable TAS for surface warships that is similarly optimised for local conditions.  We'll have to see, but in the meantime the PN thinks it has a reasonably good ASW capability between the shipboard sonar and the ASW sensors on the Z-9EC. The idea being that between the ship and helicopter, any submarine present in the area can be hunted down by both platforms acting in concert.

This brings me to another point, if the Z-9EC is so important to this, what happens when it needs to refuel and rearm, or change crews? Under such circumstances the ship would temporarily lose its most flexible and powerful ASW sensor/weapon. So why not have designed the ship with a dual hangar for two Z-9ECs? I think visually it would appear there was scope to do that. There is after all a gangway either side of the hangar that gives you access to the flight-deck from the rest of the ship. If these had been deleted and the hangar widened, then there may just have been scope for there to have been space for two ASW helicopters. It would perhaps have been a tight squeeze, but I think it was perfectly possible. There may been consequences for the Type-730B CIWS and associated sensors on the hangar roof, as I think they penetrate that deck to some degree (though I wasn't able to see firsthand just by how much even though I did climb up into the flight control position). I think an enlarged hangar and facilities for two helicopters would definitely have increased the tonnage of the design. It may have pushed right to the limits of the design, or even past them. After all, other frigates that are equipped to embark two helicopters are somewhat heavier. I think a good example of modifying an existing frigate to do so is the Indian Godavari Class frigate, which is ultimately a modification of the British Leander Class. However, even that is heavier by a considerable margin. Either way, it didn't happen. That's not to say that there is no scope for another alternative. Advances in rotary UAVs/UCAVs are progressing at a considerable pace, so there is every reason to think that in the future there may be a rotary ship-board ASW UCAV that could allow warships like the F-22P to increase their ASW footprint and effectiveness.

Some of the above mentioned possible improvements mirror the upgrade programme currently being undertaken for the Royal Australian Navy's ANZAC Class frigates. They have had a new radar, new missiles (the ESSM), and can have a TAS fitted. Though they are larger vessels, I don't see why something similar couldn't be undertaken for the F-22P. Perhaps there is scope for some or all of these improvements mentioned above to be included from the beginning if a second batch of four ‘Improved F-22P' (or F-23P?) frigates was ordered. The programme could therefore be similar to the British Type-22 frigate (which was designed for ASW in a high missile threat environment albeit with the Atlantic in mind), in the sense that each batch was an improvement over the preceding one. I really think this is the project model to follow for the F-22P. So a new ‘Improved F-22P'/‘F-22P Batch 2' could include all of the above, and perhaps incorporate more stealth features in line with some of the latest developments in Chinese ship design, (because quite obviously the Chinese would be involved in such an endeavour as it is beyond Pakistan to do such things on its own at present). We have to take into consideration that the Type-21 frigates will not see out the decade, and though the navy is hoping to acquire another four Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigates from the US (which I shall deal with at another time), the PN needs to grow, and is growing. It needs more ships like the F-22P, and considering the infrastructure has been put in place to build and support such warships the navy should carry on with the project and include design sensor/weaponry improvements as it goes. Some may disagree and say that the Type-054A (or variant thereof) should be acquired. Nominally, I would support such an endeavour. However, we have to remember that to even get the four F-22Ps Pakistan had to ‘go on the scrounge' and get a loan from China. I think therefore that it is more realistic to have a second batch of F-22Ps, to build on experience with the design, and have a high degree of commonality in the frigate force, than acquire the Type-054A. As far as the timescale for any potential modifications go, I think we have to be realistic that the fourth ship in the class, Aslat, will have to commission first, and then an upgrade package developed. At the earliest therefore we could be talking from the middle of the decade for any such physical work to commence, but realistically I'd say we'd be looking at the second half of the decade. Sadly that means the F-22Ps will have to soldier on with a far from ideal SAM fit, but there doesn't to be any other choice at present. However, they are good ships, and Pakistan made the right choice in acquiring them.

I just hope there's no dramatic escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan before they upgraded.

7:31 pm pkt 

Monday, February 13, 2012

It’s about time for a new service rifle

It has been said that decision making in the Pakistani military is comparatively quicker than in some other developing country's militaries. That may be true in some cases, but definitely not in the case of selecting a new service rifle. The Pakistan Army's official rifle is the Heckler & Koch G3 series of rifles, which to be honest are ancient. They were good for what they were in their day, but they're not suitable for the modern battlefield and the Army's own combat experience in the Frontier Areas fighting the Taliban has shown that to be true. Chambered for the 7.62x51mm NATO cartridge, it simply fires too powerful a round to be able to be controllable on fully automatic fire, which was exactly the case with its contemporary, the FN FAL series of rifles. It is also too long (making it difficult for mechanised infantrymen to comfortably deploy from APCs, and also to use effectively during close quarter battle/FIBUA situations where fully automatic or burst fire may be required), and too heavy (therefore making carrying the weapon tiring, and that is before anyone starts to think of adding under-barrel grenade launchers, holographic or thermal sights and such). Apparently it doesn't take too kindly to being used at high altitudes either, which is another problem because along with the G3, the military also uses the NORINCO Type-56, therefore adding to the logistics and cost of equipping frontline troops.

So there needs to be a change, but to what?

Some more senior officers seem to be wedded to the idea of the power of the 7.62x51mm NATO round, but they're not the ones who have to carry the rifle around and use it. So in response to the above criticisms they came up with the POF G3S. A lot of people got very excited when they saw the G3S last year. Here's a reasonably good picture (and take the opportunity to read through the comments below because some of the people posting do seem to have shooting experience). It is a fairly compact 7.62x51mm weapon, capable of being fitted with various sights and an UBGL, so in theory it's a way of getting the most out of the current G3. It isn't the first time POF have tried to solve the idea of a new battle/assault rifle. They have previously come up with the PK7, which is a weapon they developed from experience with the G3 family, but which fires the 7.62x39mm Soviet round, and uses an AK-47 type magazine. It's pretty interesting, but I was told by a POF rep' that it was mainly intended for police forces and such, and it wasn't really a weapon intended for military use, (at least not in Pakistan). At the same time they unveiled the PK8, which is basically a G3 chambered to fire the smaller 5.56x45mm NATO round, and I guess in a lot of cases isn't much different from the HK33, which dates from the 1960s. I've handled, but not fired it. I'd say it was roughly comparable to the M16A2, but whether it performs as well is not something I'm privy to, (and I did try and ask such questions at the time, but the person I was talking to seemed to know less than I did; so I didn't get very far sadly). Some PK8s seem to have been produced (I saw some that had been issued to a politician's guards in Balochistan a while back), but it doesn't look like the PK8 is going to enter military service in any large numbers either. It seemed like a pretty decent rifle, and if they had come up with it in the 1980s or 1990s I think it would have been worthwhile to adopt it. I think it's too late now though because requirements have changed, and it will be too front-heavy if they start adding all the extras that have been stated as requirements in a new firearm.

So we go back to the G3S again. I don't think this is what is needed. I don't think this is the answer to the requirement for a new service rifle, and to be honest I don't know why it even took this long to come up with a G3S prototype. I'm sure a half decent armourer could have done that to a normal G3A3/G3A4 in the space of an afternoon. Anyway, it is compact, and it is cut down, but it doesn't really strike me as a very light weapon, so it will be tiring to heft around. It's also firing too powerful a round again seeing as they stuck with 7.62.51mm round. The recoil will make it as difficult to handle as the current G3A3/G3A4 rifles, if not more so. It isn't even a new idea considering that Heckler & Koch also produced the G3KA4 carbine, and the British a similar variant, the MC51. So merely being compact isn't the answer. There has to be a change in calibre to make it more controllable in fully automatic fire. There is a reason that nearly every other military on the planet that is able to has shifted to a smaller calibre, and even some Pakistani military units, especially those that can choose their own weaponry have chosen various firearms that chamber the 5.56x45mm round. You can carry a lot more rounds for a start, but the full range of benefits for switching to the smaller NATO round has been covered ad nauseum in many other places, so I'll skip giving a run down here. There are other intermediate rounds out there. The Chinese have developed the 5.8x42mm, the Russians the 5.45x39mm, and American companies' rounds like the 6.8x43mm Remington SPC and 6.5x39mm Grendel. They are all perfectly good rounds, but there isn't really an option for Pakistan if it wants to change to a smaller calibre because the choice has already been made. Various branches of the military already use the M4 carbine, the M16, the Steyr AUG, FN F2000, and there may even be a couple more firearms chambered for this round in use. So it's not really a case of ‘which round?' The Pakistani military has already made the choice; therefore it's now a case of ‘which rifle?'

I think at this point it is a perhaps a good idea to respond to one criticism made of the 5.56x45mm round, that is lacks stopping power at longer ranges in comparison to the 7.62x51mm round. It's true, it does. However, what has to be taken into account that there has been a shift towards carbine weapons like the M4, which have sacrificed barrel length in order to reduce the overall dimensions of the weapon. Cutting down on the length of the barrel reduces the muzzle velocity which over longer ranges reduces the effectiveness of the 5.56x45mm round. Research on newer 5.56x45mm rounds has been undertaken to reduce this, but it really seems that it's best not to cut down the length of the barrel if there are going to be situations where you will need accuracy and stopping power over longer ranges. (This has been the criticism of the M4 and how the shortened barrel in relation to its forebear the M16 has resulted in these problems). The army has found itself in these situations from deserts to more mountainous regions. Even some Afghan tribesmen quite like hanging on to their old Lee Enfield .303 bolt action rifles simply because some of the terrain they live in means they can snipe at their enemies from long ranges, and they have traditionally been very good shots. So the army needs a weapon that has a good effective range, and that pretty much rules out a carbine. I'd also rule against a carbine for a number of other reasons as well. Once you start putting on UBGLs, and various torches, scopes, and laser pointing devices, you end up with quite a front-heavy weapon, which means soldiers carrying it will tire fairly easily as it is unbalanced. There are good carbines out there to be had. The M4 carbine is obviously already in service with Pakistani forces, but others like the Heckler & Koch HK416 (which was developed from the M4 anyway), are certainly more reliable, but in my mind don't meet the requirements of the army.

So if not a carbine what else? There are certainly some very good new full length 5.56x45mm calibre rifles available. The obvious one is the Heckler & Koch G36, which is a superb rifle in every respect with good effective range, but isn't really much smaller in length than the G3. Remember, if the army needs a compact weapon for CQB/FIBUA that can carry UBGL, sights, scopes, laser pointers etc, then a full sized rifle perhaps isn't the best choice even if it is of 5.56x45mm calibre. There are others of course. The Taiwanese T91 (assuming some could be ‘acquired' for reverse manufacturing - seeing as Pakistan is hardly likely to obtain any directly) is also a superb weapon, and very reliable in dusty environments as well, which is another major requirement for any firearm that Pakistan would consider. For those of us who have experienced the deserts of Pakistan we know anything susceptible to problems arising from excessive dust would be pretty much pointless. The FN SCAR is a brilliant rifle, but would probably be too expensive to procure, and again, it's too long. Its modular construction which allows conversions to other calibres is a very good idea though, and we shall return to that point.

What seems to be clear from the requirements at hand is that what is needed is a bullpup rifle. Not everyone is convinced of course, which is why all armies haven't switched over to bullpup rifles. However, if you want a compact weapon easily deployable from an APC and to manipulate in CQB/FIBUA, with good effective range from having a long barrel when engaged in fighting over longer distances, that won't become unbalanced and difficult or tiring to carry because the front end is weighed down by a UBGL, scopes/sights, torches and laser pointers, you basically need a bullpup rifle and nothing else. Not only could a good bullpup rifle replace the G3, and Type-56, but also the Heckler & Koch MP5, as that would do away with the need to have a separate 9mm weapon for officers and for some instances of CQB/FIBUA. It would definitely help with logistics to do that, and in carbine variant a bullpup rifle could be used to equip helicopter, transport, and AFV crews. There are some very good bullpup rifles available, and I think they should be considered. However, first we should look at the two already in service. The Steyr AUG is in service with the Marines as well as Type-56 and G3, (I handled all three when I visited Manora Island a few years ago). It's a pretty flash looking rifle and the Marines like the idea that it apparently has reserve buoyancy and can therefore float (I wasn't entirely sure myself but if they say so I wasn't going to argue). It's already been approved in a sense seeing as it is already in service. It is compact and you can attach all the extras that the army has previously mentioned as being required. It is also of modular construction allowing you to change barrel lengths and calibres. It's well balanced, fully ambidextrous (after some adjustments), and on the face of it ideal. Except it has some major shortcomings. It is quite old now, though I don't think that in itself should be classed as a shortcoming. The criticisms I have are, its poor effective range, when stripped it has some very small parts that can get lost quite easily, and it's a little too easy to accidentally loosen off a round. So much so that Australian soldiers are purposefully trained to pick it up with their non-master hand. So it may be good for the Marines in the marshes and creek areas, but I don't think it's suitable for the rest of the military. So we'll rule out the Steyr AUG. The FN2000 has also been preapproved, and by the SSG no less. I can only really think of three criticisms for the FN2000. It might actually be too expensive for the Pakistani military to replace its G3 and Type-56 inventory with this weapon. We are after all talking about a huge number of weapons here, far in excess of any orders that it has secured so far, which have mainly, but not entirely, been restricted to special forces units. I also don't know if FN Herstal will allow for it to be produced by POF, which quite frankly without a license production agreement would kill the prospect of being selected. Perhaps if POF were to negotiate a deal to produce the FN Minimi Para LMG (which is also in service in small numbers with the Pakistani military - and I don't think we really need look further for a 5.56x45mm calibre LMG) to partially replace the Heckler & Koch MG3 in the infantry role (as it is a big and unwieldy weapon that can't be fired from the hip - though it should still be kept in the support role), then I think it may be a sufficiently big enough deal for FN Herstal to agree. However, the main performance criticism I have of the FN2000 is that I think its effective range should be a little longer. I think this is primarily the result of it having a slightly shorter barrel than some other rifles, but I think it makes a difference. It's still a brilliant weapon, but I think it's let down in that respect.

So let's look a few bullpup rifles that may be easily available (there are of course a lot out there, but I'm deliberately keeping the number examined confined to those that can realistically be considered). I think the South African Vektor CR-21 is roughly comparable to the FN2000. It's not ambidextrous, which may count against it. It doesn't really seem to have been bought by anyone either. This isn't necessarily something which should rule it out, but it is a good sign if it has been received well internationally in the form of export sales. Unfortunately the CR-21 hasn't even been purchased by the South Africans themselves, (probably because they have no money). A full evaluation in Pakistan and talking about unit cost and production and such should decide on its suitability, but the South Africans know how to make good guns, and the CR-21 is by no means a poor weapon. The Chinese have of course produced the QBZ-97A and variants thereof, which would definitely be available for domestic production. It's a fairly light and compact weapon, but I'm unsure about the effective range. There has also been speculation that the Chinese themselves are not entirely happy with the variant they have in service. Again, I think a full evaluation in Pakistan, especially to establish the effective range of the QBZ-97A and its ergonomics would answer any questions that may hang over it. However, simply in respects of availability and affordability I don't think it can be discounted, and I think it should be seriously considered. I think the commercially available firearm which ticks nearly all the boxes though, is probably the Singaporean SAR-21A. I think apart from the fact it isn't ambidextrous, it meets all other requirements. It may be a little heavy (though being a bullpup rifle it would still be well balanced if lots of attachments were added), but it is compact, and should be able to handle Pakistani requirements very well. I don't think Singapore would decline such a massive deal with Pakistan even if they have been closer to the Indians militarily and commercially, but I definitely think it's worth exploring.

The only other alternative I can think of is a domestically designed bullpup rifle which would not only at least match all the qualities of the above bullpup rifles (or at least the FN2000 and SAR-21A), but also have a modular configuration allowing it to be adapted for different calibres similar to the FN SCAR (for export reasons according to customers requirements, and if required to the 7.62x51mm round for sniping and/or an LMG on a heavier barrelled variant like the British L86A1 LSW - which is still a 5.56x45mm weapon but is being used for sniping or longer range harassment fire in Afghanistan). I definitely think it's possible for POF to design a capable bullpup rifle. I think it's mainly a case of someone recognising the need and putting the money forward for R&D. If nothing else they could use the PK8 as a basis for a bullpup rifle, because it's not as if rifles like the G3 and FN FAL/SLR haven't been modified into a bullpup configuration by others, even if they never went into production. It all depends on somebody with drive and forethought at POF to be honest. So we'll see what they come up with.

I only hope it isn't the G3S...

5:31 pm pkt 

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Never attribute to complicity what can be explained by incompetence.


So they found and killed bin Laden in Abbottabad hiding in plain sight!! I must say I’d thought of the idea, but my suggestion that hiding out in New York selling ‘Made in China’ September 2001 ‘memorabilia’ would have been safer for him. After all who would ever think he would be so brazen?

 

Well, he’s dead now anyway. Not that I mourn him in any way. He’s got a huge amount of blood on his hands, and his warped ideas have proved to be catastrophic for far too many. For all the trouble he’s caused he deserves what he’s going to get, and I sincerely doubt it’s where he thought he’d end up. I guess he knows that now, but it’s too late. (So therein lies the lesson: learn your lessons now and do something about it rather than wish you’d done so when it’s too late).

 

I can’t say I agree with him being killed though. Despite apparently not putting up much of a fight (less than his wife supposedly did if we can believe whatever version of events the Americans are peddling now – they’ve had about ten years to get their story straight, and yet we still have multiple competing versions that are only fuelling the conspiracy theories of the hard of thinking), I don’t think he should have been killed. I think perhaps more should have been done to capture him. He should have been captured and tried. The practice of extrajudicial executions is basically the law of the jungle. Aren’t the Americans supposed to be the ‘good guys’? They’re supposed to believe in justice, due process, and all the rest of it. What’s gone ‘wrong’ with them?  They’ve turned bin Laden into a martyr, unarmed and gunned down in the presence of his family, instead of some deranged evil fool who would die in prison, or via lethal injection. On the flip side of course the SEALs would have had to assume that the guy who sent a lot of impressionable people to kill themselves in suicide attacks would do the same. So they shot him outright. Perhaps we shouldn’t pontificate too much therefore, but I’ll never shake the feeling that it was better to try him in a proper court of law.

 

I don’t know what the fallout from that will be, but I guess we’ll find out. This insanity will not end with his death though, that’s for certain.

 

What do we say about Pakistan though? How utterly embarrassing was this!!!!? I’ve been to Abbottabad. I would never have thought he’d be hiding there. I saw a lot of security about the place. It’s a garrison town after all. That was probably one of the factors that made it the best place to be honest. Even though terrorists have been caught there in the past, who would think bin Laden himself would be there? Also, it was relatively close to the Tribal Areas, it had a major regional trunk road running through it, and it had a large transitory population. It was easy enough to hide in plain sight there; except it shouldn’t have been.

 

Kakul was but a stone’s throw away, and there were multiple other military facilities and such all over the place. Security should have been tight and intelligence keeping an eye on everything and everyone. You’d be forgiven therefore for thinking he was being hidden by the intelligence services. What else are you supposed to think? It sounds the most logical explanation; that is except for the fact that the ISI and in fact all the intelligence agencies here have a pretty dismal track record of failure. Some of them are truly spectacular, and the worst one was (in my mind at least), being caught day dreaming whilst uber-traitor/spiv A Q Khan, Pakistan’s favourite metallurgist, was flogging centrifuge technology left right and centre. There’s actually a whole catalogue of failures that people overlook when they describe the ISI as some fearsome organisation so powerful it has a hand in everything and could probably change the rotation of the earth. Sure it has its successes, and some have been notable, but don’t discount its abject failures. It’s an equally likely explanation, (if not being more so) and there are some serious questions that need answers.

 

Coupled to that is the astonishingly lacklustre, but not altogether unexpected, feckless response by the government. More due to this indifferent incompetence than anything else, Pakistan now ranks alongside North Korea in the credibility and trustworthy stakes. What else would anyone expect considering the Prime Minister disappeared to France to no doubt see if he could increase the size of his bank balance, rather than practice a modicum of crisis management?

 

So perhaps we shouldn’t put down to complicity what we can explain by incompetence.

 

(Incidentally if anyone believed that crap about the house being worth a US$1 million they need their head examining, because if that house is worth a million there are a million houses in Pakistan worth a billion. It’s not even a PKR.500,000 house, it’s not exactly special, and is basically the type of house you would expect a Pathan gold merchant to live in).

6:41 am pkt 

Friday, April 22, 2011

Beyond disgraceful


Just when you think this wretched nation that calls itself Pakistan couldn’t sink any lower, it surprises you; even when you know you should stop being surprised. If there was any justice in this damned place, fourteen rapists would have been hanged for the crimes they committed, but there is no justice; especially not for women. For a start eight rapists were simply let go, and that left the six who even Blind Freddy could have convicted in what in most countries, (or any country where they had a half decent sense of right and wrong plus a semi-functional judicial system), would have been an open and shut case. Not here though. Not in Pakistan.

 

The freeing of five of Mukhtaran Mai’s attackers, (bar one, the ring leader Abdul Khaliq who also sodomised her younger brother – but has seen his death sentence commuted to life imprisonment despite rape being a capital offence probably on no more grounds than he is a feudal landlord), sets a new, but not unexpected low for Pakistan. The victims were illiterate peasants, the perpetrators powerful feudal landlords. In a nation where the party that currently forms the government was formed to protect the interests of the feudal landowning ‘elite’, we shouldn’t have expected anything else. In a country where the police (who didn’t even record Mukhtaran’s statement properly) are corrupt, poorly trained, poorly equipped, unprofessional, politicised and a reflection of a warped society, we shouldn’t expect anything else. In a nation where the judiciary and legal service are corrupt, unprofessional, politicised, unfeasibly inept, and due to this a danger to the stability and security of the country (as can be seen in the appeal of the Taliban dispensing ‘justice’ – because they at least give you a result before you die of old age without having to be bribed), we shouldn’t expect anything else. In a nation of ignorant and illiterate savages who are warped enough to believe a victim should commit suicide to erase the ‘shame’ brought by the crime, we shouldn’t expect anything else. In Pakistan the powerful are not only above the law, they’ve elevated themselves above God Himself. There can be no justice here under these circumstances. So we shouldn’t expect anything else.

 

You can already see some news and media outlets claiming the judiciary has bowed to Islamic extremists. That definitely is true in the case of Asia Bibi, but in this case they’re bowing to pressure from the feudal ‘elite’. The pseudo-religious nutcases in this damned place are responsible for a legion of crimes, but this isn’t one of them. That’s not to say they’re not displaying their usual hypocrisy. Had Mukhtaran Mai been assaulted in a non-Muslim country, say America for example (the country they love to hate – even though Pakistanis will gladly take US Dollars in aid), these clowns would have been leaping about all over the place in their usual fashion running riot, razing the place to the ground, and accompanied by burning the relevant flags (who sells them these flags in the first place – they must be rich). However, seeing as it happened in Pakistan…not a peep. Not that I’m saying they should be razing the place to the ground of course, but they could at least come on the record and condemn it and voice support for Mai. They won’t do that of course. Not even if you consider the Sharia law they always harp on about would have seen all fourteen of Mai’s attackers executed years ago.

 

So Islam isn’t to blame here. In fact, having lived here for a number of years, these people are some of the least religious people I’ve ever met. You see mosques everywhere, you see the ‘trappings’ of faith, but that’s all superficial. The mosques are mainly empty because the majority of these people can’t even be bothered to pray once at home let alone five times in a mosque, and they’re some of the most fundamentally untrustworthy and dishonest people you’ll ever meet anywhere. Why else would the place be in such a state? If the leadership of a country is a reflection of society, then society must be a reflection of the leadership. So you get a good idea about just how low these people are. They think nothing of trying to rob or cheat you. In fact they think it’s their ‘right’ to do so. Their crimes, seemingly regardless of how serious they are, are all somewhat ‘casual’ to them. They have become ‘normal’ and are committed without a second thought. They commit them as if on autopilot, just like the nation’s politicians. That’s why Pakistanis keep voting in the same set of incompetent and venal thieves, because they’re voting for people who are like themselves, but have the added hypocrisy to complain about it afterwards. They don’t accept this though. They don’t lie looking in a mirror and seeing who they really are, and when they look at the likes of Zardari/Gardari, or Nodding Ass Gillani, or Mr Potatohead/Nawaz Sharif, or rabble rousing philandering bum Imran Khan, or that odious toad Altaf Hussein, or any of the others, they don’t like what they see, because it’s themselves they really see. They are sick, and they are twisted. I don’t know what it would take for Pakistanis to mend their ways. In recent years there has been a massive earthquake, a flood of biblical proportions, death and destruction on an almost daily basis by brainwashed pseudo-religious nutcases, but they’re obviously waiting for a fireball from heaven to burn the place to a cinder before they even contemplate changing. Even then, I doubt they’d change.

 

For outsiders who have experience of living in another country, especially somewhere like the UK or the US, Pakistan has become a repulsive caricature. You get the sense of hopelessness here. Anybody who can leave is leaving. There’s a considerable brain drain because talented and honest people don’t see a future for themselves here even without the government hell bent on killing off the Higher Education Commission for questioning fake degrees held by politicians. There’s no justice (as Mai has learnt to her cost and she may yet pay for it with her life, as may her family), the economy has tanked, a self inflicted energy crisis is sapping the life out of the country, the law and order situation worsening by the minute, and above it all the lunatics are running the asylum. There’s no hope left.

 

When it comes to Pakistan, like Mai, you can only put your faith in God, because to put your faith in Pakistanis is futile.

6:19 pm pkt 

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