Well, it’s been a long time since we learnt that Pakistan was seeking to modernise its navy with a whole range of new platforms. Way back in 2006 in fact when I interviewed the then naval chief, Admiral Afzal Tahir, I asked him about some of the intended programmes.

To sum up all the naval platform programmes that we know of:

-         Transfer of Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigates from the US

-         A new class of submarines (HDW Type-214)

-         A joint Pakistan-Turkish corvette programme

-         The F-22P/Sword Class frigate programme

-         A follow on from the F-22P Class (Type-051A Jiangkai-II Class frigate or variant thereof, OR a German design)

-         Expansion of national shipbuilding capabilities by opening of new facilities in Gwadar and Omara

Well, the first OHP Class frigate, USS McInerny (FFG-8), will be the subject of a ‘hot transfer’ when it is decommissioned from USN service in August, and after refurbishment is due to arrive in Pakistan around December this year. With it’s Mk-13 ‘One Armed Bandit’ missile launcher having been removed, (as in all USN OHP Class frigates), it is, at present, little more than a glorified gunboat. I’m not sure what the refurbishment will include, but considering the upgrades other operators of the class have undertaken, like Australia and Turkey, there is still life left in what is a very robust design.

The PN however still requires/desires six of the class. Whether this will happen and under what timeframe is open to debate. We’ve known about the transfer of McInerny now for about two years. If we consider that this how long the process takes, well, then that there has been no further OHP Class frigate which has been named as being slated for transfer is indicative of the fact Pakistan may face quite a wait. The USN after all needs the remaining OHP Class frigates for itself. Not being a charity organisation, it considers its own needs first and foremost. So it looks like Pakistan is in for a wait.

The F-22P/Sword Class frigate programme is on track however, and all four ships in the class are likely to be delivered on time. This, and obtaining any further OHP Class frigates, is due to two very important reasons. The Chinese, as ever, have been generous and offered Pakistan very liberal credit facilities to obtain the F-22P Class frigates. The Americans on the other hand, are transferring the OHP Class frigates free of cost under a Foreign Military Sales programme to a Major Non-NATO Ally. So at least two of Pakistan’s modernisation programmes are making progress, and the reason for that is because Pakistan either isn’t paying, or only needs to pay later.

This is a big clue as to the non-movement of the other projects in the modernisation programme if you haven’t already spotted it, cash. Pakistan is broke, and the government is simply too busy mismanaging the economy and lining its own pockets, (or at best looking after its own interests) to care. Don’t get too excited about the ‘opposition’ either. They’re too busy doing the same, planning to do the same, or pilfering electricity at ‘anti-corruption’ rallies.

The Pakistan-Turkish corvette programme was supposed to involve a purpose designed corvette and deep transfer of technology to allow Pakistan to build the corvettes indigenously. The corvettes themselves would not have been the Milgem/Ada Class corvettes being constructed for the Turkish navy as has been speculated, but based on the Milgem design. A key aspect of the deal was to maximise the role and involvement of the private sector in line with, and based on the experience of, the Turkish model in defence procurement and planning. After IDEAS2008 the three member Turkish conglomerate behind the design presented it to the PN for approval, and by Summer 2009 negotiations were supposed to start in earnest leading to an agreement. What ever happened in Summer 2009, there has been no agreement, and currently the status of the programme is unknown. If it isn’t floating face down dead in the water, it’s in deep freeze.

Likewise the next generation submarine programme. The HDW Type-214 SSK was selected as suitable for the PN’s needs, and approval for a deal sought from the government. This was the status in 2008. At IDEAS2008 the Chief Executive of HDW, Walter Freitag, told me that they had hoped to sign a deal by the end of that year, but due to unforeseen circumstances, that hadn’t happened. By Summer 2009, a deal was expected to be signed between Pakistan and HDW, whereupon approval for the sale of three Type-214 submarines would be sought from the German federal government after the German general elections in September 2009. The government was said to be favourably disposed to the idea, despite some ill informed and prejudiced ramblings from the Green Party.

By December however there had been no further developments, and after a trip to China by the current PN CNS, Admiral Noman Bashir, we started to hear talk about submarine co-operation with the Chinese. It appears that the PN is now re-evaluating the selection of the Type-214, in relation to a Chinese design thought to be the Type-041A Yuan Class SSK. What would make Pakistan choose to start looking at an unproven design from a nation still struggling to catch up with every other submarine design and manufacturing nation? Cash, or lack of.

Yes, that’s right folks! Pakistan is broke, so the hoped for flotilla of up to 15 submarines is may take longer than hoped. The two Agosta-70 submarines that are to be replaced by the initial batch of new submarines will not last forever, but it seems they will have to soldier on. The selection of the Type-214 was supposed to allow for a greater level of ‘deep’ co-operation with Turkey due to both operating the same design. This is something which has been long neglected as I have mentioned previously, (on account of Pakistan being conned into buying dud French subs).

So the corvette deal is probably dead, the submarine programme is on life support, and unless the Chinese are feeling extra generous there won’t be a follow on from the F-22P any time soon either. That means the expansion of naval construction facilities isn’t going to be happening any time soon either. Especially when the government refuses to comprehensively tackle the Balochi feudal land lords who are destabilising Balochistan, (with their nonsensical claims of being ‘oppressed’ – considering they stand to lose control of their serfs if any large scale development, education, or proper democratic reforms are enacted their barking is a tad rich).

We’ll see what happens I guess, but without the economic situation of Pakistan improving, the safety and territorial integrity of the state is imperilled. This criminally inept government is destroying the security of the state along with everything else it can lay its hands on. For this to change however, we would need Pakistanis themselves to actually engage the brain cells they have and vote for change. Considering Pakistanis seem to be wilfully incapable of such a thing and are collectively stupid on an unimaginable scale, I won’t be holding my breath.