Pakistan's next generation submarine programme has been dragging on for years. At IDEAS2008 I was told (and I wasn't the only one by any means) that Pakistan was mere months from signing a deal for the Type-214 with HDW. The deal was expected to be signed in early 2009. Then I was told it was going to be signed in the summer of 2009 and then ratified by the new government in September of the same year. However, that never came to anything. Then in December 2009 we started hearing about a Chinese option, with the "Type-039" mentioned, but this probably referred to the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan class. Since then, nothing has eventuated, and time is dragging on.

To even get to the stage where it looked like the Type-214 was about to be purchased took years longer than expected, and the only benefit to come of this period was that the Marlin (or as it is now, the submarine formerly known as Marlin and now a part of the "Scorpene family"), an overpriced and overrated French paper option (aren't they all - overpriced and overrated), was rejected. So the programme is dragging on a bit. Had everything gone to plan we would have had a submarine undergoing construction in Karachi by now for sure, even perhaps not far off being launched.

The problem is, is that these things take time, and the longer things drag on the more likelihood that the technology on the Type-214 will start to date. I don't mean the submarine itself. I think the basic design will be with us for very many years yet. I mean the subsystems, like the sensors and combat management system and such. This is fairly obvious. As things date they are replaced with more advanced systems, and these newer systems take time to evaluate and develop, and drive up costs further, not to mention drag things out even longer. It's a vicious circle. So there has to come a point where things simply have to start moving physically or there will be a ‘submarine gap'. By that I mean the period where the submarines already in service will be ready, or even overdue, for retirement and there is no new submarine in sight. That either means old submarines have to serve longer than should really be operationally desirable, or they are retired and there is numbers a crunch/shortfall that hits operational effectiveness. The upgrading of Pakistan's older Agosta-70s with the indigenous Marine Systems Limited Slim Line Towed Array Sonar, and French SUBTICS combat management system (as fitted to the Khalid class) will perhaps help in keeping these older submarines in service and reasonably effective, but there may still be a problem in maintaining numbers. (Just look at the Indian submarine programme if you need a good idea of what I'm on about). This is especially so considering Pakistan wants to increase the size of its submarine flotilla.

Now, cash, (or lack of), is obviously a factor, and one of the reasons I have been told that a deal has not been signed with HDW for the Type-214, is that it is a little expensive for what Pakistan feels it is able to afford. If you want quality though, you have to pay for it, and the Type-214 is the best conventional submarine commercially available to Pakistan at this present moment in time. It has the added benefit of allowing Pakistan to increase its defence co-operation with Turkey as well, as I've mentioned previously.

If Pakistan can't afford to straight out opt for the Type-214 at this moment in time, what options does it have if it wants to avoid an availability shortfall, but still opt for a western design? On the face of it there doesn't seem to be an option. Not since last year's flooding has set the country back and emptied the state coffers (though not politicians pockets obviously) for some time to come. However, if Pakistan is determined to explore submarine co-operation with Turkey, (and it should be), and if there is a determination to increase the number of submarines Pakistan operates, there is an option. Pakistan could lease or buy a couple of older Type-209 submarines from Turkey.

The Turkish navy was hoping to upgrade some of its initial batch of Type-209 submarines, the Type-209/1200 Atilay class. The upgrade was supposed to give them an AIP unit and such, and I guess in that respect it was similar to the Greek navy's Neptune-II upgrade programme for their Poseidon class submarines. It sounds a little crazy, but I think it's perfectly feasible. It's definitely a cheaper option, and will allow the PN to increase the size and availability of its submarine flotilla until a more permanent and long term option can be found, (namely an economic recovery allowing for the purchase of the Type-214). PN crews would be able to get to grips with German submarine technology, the harbour and support facilities can be adapted for the same, and Pakistan would be gaining what is still a brilliant submarine. The upgrade work is probably best undertaken in Turkey to be honest. It can be done in Pakistan, but that would be unnecessary and defeat the whole purpose of exercising the option, to get something in service relatively quickly to maintain/boost numbers. The Turks are more likely to be able to deliver the finished submarines in the timeframe required as well. That is if Pakistan wants them in the water and if not operational, at least approaching becoming operational, within three years from the decision being made.

Turkey is the largest operator of the Type-209, and German-designed submarines in general. It has a total of 14 Type-209s of three variants ‘on the books', so it's hardly an idle boast. Its shipyards have considerable experience in building and upgrading the design. It would be best that the work be carried out in Turkey therefore, and Pakistani engineers work alongside them to gain experience in German submarine technology, which can be later used on building the Type-214 in Pakistan. Just two additional submarines of the Type-209 class would make a considerable difference for Pakistan. They are quite compact, very quiet (more so with AIP), have excellent endurance/range, have very good diving characteristics, and are still more than capable of delivering results even if they are not the most modern submarines around. You only need look at what the South Africans have achieved with their Heroine class Type-209/1400s to see this. Some people may dismiss the idea even now purely due to their age. However, even if the Type-209/1200s are of a similar vintage to the Agosta-70s Pakistan already has, they were better than the French submarines when they were built in the 70s, and still better now. This is especially so if they're upgraded, because for a start no one is talking about retrofitting an AIP system to the Agosta-70s. Upgraded Type-209s from Turkey isn't a crazy idea.

Perhaps Turkey can even help finance the first batch of Pakistani Type-214s if this deal is thrashed out? It is something that should be explored if Pakistan is so short of cash at present that there is a possibility of a numbers crunch. All possibilities should be examined. Turkey is not a charity organisation though, and nor should a strongly fraternal country and steadfast ally be treated like one. So there has to be something in return for Turkey besides Type-209 upgrade work for their shipyards. The only real option here would be a guarantee of selecting the Type-214 and co-producing it with Turkey as the Turks have expressly stated they would like to see happen. They want to undertake joint submarine production with Pakistan, and it is something that would benefit both countries. If this potential co-operation therefore starts with the joint modification of a couple of Type-209s in Turkey, that would be a good deal for both parties. Both Pakistan and Turkey stand to gain. It isn't a one way street.

That the Indians operate a larger variant of the Type-209, the Type-209/1500 Shishumar class may worry some, but why should it? Greece and Turkey were at each other's throats, (or at least threatening to be until quite recently), and they both operated the Type-209 with no problems. There is no operational reason why Pakistan should reject a couple of modified Type-209/1200 submarines to see out the rest of the decade, whilst it manages to get itself together and agree to a Type-214 deal, arrange for the finances, construct/expand/modify its yards, and starts the construction process. How long do people think that will take? Realistically speaking we are talking a good few years; perhaps too long. Modified Type-209/1200 submarines are a very good stop-gap option because there are no Agosta-90Bs to be had, and definitely no Agosta-70s that Pakistan would want. If Pakistan needs some good, proven submarines as a stop gap, and needs them cheaply and relatively quickly, then there isn't really another option to be honest. It does start to make sense once you start to think about it, so if the Turks agree, it's an option that should be exercised.

Where does this leave the alternative Chinese option? That's a little difficult, but as much as people may think. Sino-Pakistani defence co-operation is at a level which may not be possible elsewhere and with any other nation where Pakistan is concerned. It isn't a two way street by any means (though it doesn't mean Pakistan has been letting China have a look at F-16s like one infamous rumour claims because that never happened), but the Chinese have proven themselves to be ‘all weather friends', and that will remain the case. How else would the JF-17 Thunder, a Pakistani specific programme that was only possible because of the Chinese, come about? There is actually along list of defence projects where Pakistan has taken an existing Chinese project, and upgraded it, or asked for modifications, in order to meet Pakistani specifications. The most obvious is the Al-Khalid, but you can see the same in F-7PG, the Karakorum Eagle AEW&C aircraft, FC-20 and such. There's a long list there. Something similar could no doubt be done in the field of submarines.

The Chinese actually offered Pakistan a submarine design back in the 1990s, but at the time the technological advancement of their submarine technology wasn't at the required level for Pakistan's requirements. Things have changed a great deal since then, and Chinese submarine technology and designs have the west seriously worried. I still don't think they're on a level with the leading exporters yet, but I don't think they're that far behind anymore. The Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan is by all accounts a fine submarine that appears to blend the best of the Type-039 Song class with some characteristics of the Russian Kilo series (advanced examples of which the Chinese operate or at least have ‘on the books'). However, the speed of Chinese submarine advancement may in itself be a problem. The alternative options Pakistan has are proven designs. The state of Chinese submarine design is moving so fast that their only real proven design is the Type-039 Song class submarine, which isn't something Pakistan would necessarily want. It's too old now. The Chinese are yet to get to grips with operating the Yuan class themselves. In fact when it comes to operating conventional submarines in general, I think Pakistan is in a position to show China a thing or two. Pakistani conventional submarine crews on average definitely have more experience than their Chinese counterparts. One of the reasons China is massively ramping up advanced submarine numbers is perhaps arguably to rapidly gain operational experience. So even if we're talking about the Yuan class, we're talking about Pakistan taking a gamble. That's even more the case if you take into account the fact in September the Chinese unveiled a new submarine design that shares design characteristics of Russia's Amur/Lada class, the follow on from the Kilo design. So if Pakistan exercises a Chinese option, it can obtain a Chinese design specifically tailored to its own requirements, but where exactly does it step onboard the Chinese submarine design train, considering things are moving so fast?

My personal opinion therefore is to step back a little, but not negate the Chinese option as such; only to delay it a little. It may surprise many if not most people as to just what Pakistani scientists can conjure up with regards technology that can be applied to submarines. These people are really underestimated, even though there is plenty of evidence to suggest they shouldn't be. I think the best option is to go for the Type-214, but take a more long term approach with the Chinese, so a design is ready for when the Agosta-70s are retired by the end of the decade (or before).

I say this with a specific threat in mind, INS Arihant, India's SSBN. Currently, both India and Pakistan keep their nuclear warheads in a disassembled state. They are not mated to ballistic missiles, and are stored separately. It is a confidence building measure to ensure nothing gets out of hand by mistake. Indian and Pakistan are not operating their deterrents on a hair trigger like the opponents did during the Cold War. Arihant will change that, because the whole idea, the whole purpose of the SSBN, is to carry a nuclear deterrent that is ready to strike as soon as the order is given. They sail on a permanent war patrol. That is the whole point of its existence. The entire strategic balance of South Asia will be completely unbalanced therefore.

Herein lies the scope for Sino-Pakistani submarine co-operation. It is well within Pakistani industrial capability to produce a nuclear reactor compact enough to provide a trickle/hotel feed of power to a conventional submarine's batteries. So instead of having an AIP unit on a hybrid submarine, there would be a nuclear power production ‘plug' in its place. Normal nuclear powered submarines have a nuclear reactor powering a steam turbine, or some other such propulsion system. Exercising the nuclear/electric option (probably with diesel engines still included), would result in a submarine which may not have the sustained high speed of a normal nuclear powered submarine, but it would have its endurance. Exercising a longer term Chinese option in this guise therefore gives Pakistan the choice of really tailor making a submarine to its specific requirements, namely one which would carry its deterrent.

It's definitely more realistic and affordable than going for a full scale SSBN, and Pakistan only wants to deter India. There is therefore scope and reason for Pakistan to explore both options when it comes to its next generation submarine, and have a highly potent two-tier submarine force in the numbers it requires, with the quality it needs, and the hitting power it can't survive without.

Muslims are supposed to physically try and stop something bad if they see it happening. If they can't do that for whatever reason they're supposed to speak out against it. Least of all if they can't physically stop it or speak out against it for whatever reason, they're supposed to condemn it in their hearts.

Well, I'm going to speak out against something. Pakistan isn't really a place where you have a ‘quiet' week in comparison to other countries, but last week was pretty eventful. I don't have much in common with the former governor of the Punjab, Salman Taseer, who met his demise last Tuesday. Not if we want to concentrate on his fathering illegitimate children and such anyway. I do however agree with him when it comes to this so-called blasphemy law, (ironically that also puts me in agreement with Sherry Rehman - absurd as that sounds), which is causing a lot of problems of late.

I say of late because it is only recently that it has really come to the attention of the international media. It would be hard for it not to considering a Christian woman, Asia Bibi, (who is probably innocent), has been condemned to death. It is good old fashioned anti-Muslim incendiary tabloid material, which will set the pages of the Daily Fascist (Daily Mail - a British deranged rightwing tabloid) aflame, and no doubt it probably already has done (I try not to associate myself with such gutter ‘journalism' so we'll take it for granted they're true to form). I do know that the case has shone an unwelcome (though I personally welcome it if it leads to positive change) spotlight on a Pakistani law that is a useful tool for anyone in Pakistan engaged in a dispute (no matter how trivial - property and even gambling debts have been triggers in the past) with a non-Muslim. All it takes is one false accusation and that person is as good as dead. Having a woman (ie not a man - as is usual) accused and tried for ‘blasphemy' however is a new one, and far more incendiary, hence the furore (I never saw anyone making a big deal before this - to which I can obviously be included, but this is not usually my field).

However, I haven't even come across what she is supposed to have actually said. What exactly is it that she is supposed to have said that has resulted in this episode? What we do know from what has been reported is that whatever it is she is supposed to have said was so incendiary it took someone who wasn't even present when the supposed incident took place, some time well after the event (we're talking days) to report it to the police (surely if it was so incendiary the people present during the dispute would have gone to the police themselves). Anyway, as the furore grew, the police initially took her into custody to save her life from the inevitable mob of over emotional ignorant and illiterate savages, after which a complaint was made, a ‘case' registered, and they charged her with the stated ‘offence'. There seems to have been little in the way of police investigation to get to the bottom of things from what has been reported in the media. What we do know is that she claims a dispute broke out because some self-described Muslim women she was working with in the fields (they were harvesting something I suspect) refused to drink water that had been brought to them by a Christian, or drink from a cup that had been used by a Christian, (which is frankly more plausible an explanation than the alternative version of events). So things snowballed from there. As I've said, we still don't know what it is exactly she is supposed to have said. I haven't seen any of her accusers in front of the media. Did the police even question all the women who were supposedly present at the time of the alleged incident separately to see if everyone's version of events matched? There seems to be no indication that this basic step (which would have resolved the issue in about an hour and half) took place. Her ‘trial', (and I use the term very loosely), took about 13 months, whereas it could haven been sorted out in a few minutes (dismissed), or at least should not have taken more than a week at the very latest. It was a simple case of people saying someone has said something, and the defendant claiming she didn't. Anyway, she was found ‘guilty'.

Again I don't know what it is she is supposed to have said. Was it even ‘blasphemy', because as a Christian had she said that she didn't think the Prophet Muhammad (S.A.W - the transliteration of initials the Arabic for ‘peace be upon him' sometimes abbreviated as ‘PBUH') was a prophet, then that's obviously not ‘blasphemy' in any way because she's a Christian. Obviously she doesn't believe that because she's not a Muslim, and she has a right under Islamic law and tradition to practice and freely believe in her faith. If someone claiming to be a Muslim said it on the other hand that would be blasphemy.

Now, one of the stunning ironies of this entire episode is that people seem to have put aside the fact that the police in Pakistan are generally pretty inept when it comes to investigating crimes. In fact they're not impartial to dabbling in the past time themselves, (which is a separate issue in some respects). They do have to be commended in initially acting to save her from a mob, but the atmosphere would probably have been so charged at the time that they were later only too glad to get rid of her any way they could to stop a riot from breaking out. There would have been no incentive for the police to make things difficult for themselves in trying to carry out a full and proper investigation knowing they could get lynched by an irate mob. So they effectively passed it on to someone else to sort out. Especially in contentious cases, buck passing is entirely normal in the Pakistani legal system. A Pakistani lawyer, speaking from experience once clearly admitted to me without blushing at all, in lower courts the best a lawyer can hope for is for their client's case to be appealed and passed on to a higher court. This is entirely normal. When you add to that the fact that a lawyer defending a person who is falsely accused of ‘blasphemy' is in real danger of being murdered (I understand it has happened), and that a judge in a lower court who acquits a person brought before the court on a false accusation of ‘blasphemy' is in real danger of being murdered (and I understand that has happened), then there is pressure to pass the case up the system to a court that basically has the guts to throw the case out and acquit the defendant if they are innocent. Even then that may not be enough because the defendant is in danger of being murdered regardless of whether they are innocent or not.

So taking the above into account do we think Asia Bibi was given a fair trial?

Now there are moves to get her pardoned by the President. I don't think Asif Ali ‘Gardari' is going to do that for fear of having the whole country set ablaze by ‘Neanderthals'. To be honest, they'd only add to the long and distinguished list of people who wouldn't even shed crocodile tears if he croaked, but granting Asia Bibi a presidential pardon would probably result in anarchy and neither he nor this non-government have the guts to resolutely take on religious extremists over this issue. I don't want her pardoned either. I want her given a fair trial. All Muslims should be concerned with the fair and proper, correct, or what ever way you want to describe it, dispensing of justice. So I don't want Asia Bibi pardoned. I want her given a fair trial, so she can have a proper day in court and be exonerated of what, on the evidence available, is a baseless accusation. Then, sadly, she's going to have to be given asylum in a foreign country (hopefully the British government will step up and do the decent thing for a change now we're on a roll by ending the detention of children of failed asylum seekers), because the fact is, even if acquitted, she is in danger of being murdered. That's just the plain truth bluntly expressed. It's a damning indictment on Pakistan and its society, but it is a fact. She is in danger of being murdered and thanks to the media everyone knows what she looks like even though she has appeared shrouded in a shawl in some appearances. As for her accusers, well, under Islamic law a person bringing a false accusation is liable to suffer the punishment reserved for a person found guilty of that crime. So if they have accused her falsely, then they have to pay. I can't see why they'd complain about it myself considering they were all worked up about someone supposedly ‘insulting' Islam and were quite happy to ultimately see a person hang. If they are so strong in their faith, they'd have to respect the law.

It does bring us back to the question of the law itself. I doubt it will be scrapped entirely. Just look at what happened to Taseer. Pakistan's politicians will line their nests with gusto and invest their ill gotten wealth overseas, but this is a bit too much to ask from them. It's not going to happen. I suspect the non-government is hoping the Supreme Court will sort out this mess surrounding Asia Bibi, and they can heave a sigh of relief without getting their hands ‘dirty' trying to do something about a law that has already got a member of the government killed.

It has to happen though. It has been said long and hard that the law needs reforming so the onus is on the accuser to prove their accusation. That I believe is the key to all of this. That way it would remove the law from the hands of those who want to use it as a tool to falsely accuse any of Pakistan's religious minorities of ‘blasphemy'. It would remove it as a tool of oppression. To reform it in such a way would be entirely in accordance with Islamic law, which is an aspect most commentators have not touched upon, and which hardly any foreign commentators (none to my knowledge) have touched upon (especially not in the likes of the Daily Fascist because they never let the facts get in the way of a good story anyway let alone a story such as this). However, despite the need to bring this law into line with Islamic legal principles, I doubt very much any ‘civilian' government at least will touch the issue with a bargepole. It's plainly too much to ask. Even the mention of it would incite the ignorant and illiterate to burn the place to the ground. You have to look at who made blasphemy a capital offence, it was none other than Mr Potatohead Nawaz Sharif, trying to curry favour with religious extremists. The law itself had been introduced by Zia ul Haq, (that well known ‘defender' of Islam) when he was trying to do the same, and the foundations for this were laid by Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto (the very same philandering drunken thug) who was himself trying to curry favour with religious extremists. So this is what happens when you try to curry favour with these people, the end result is an ungovernable country with perhaps the majority of people stuck in between warring factions and at their mercy. As Pakistanis refuse to stand up to extremists and sort out their own country however, I think this situation will carry on as it is.

I have to say the ultimate irony in all of this is that if the blasphemy law were applied properly, many of these ignorant and illiterate savages dancing about and making blood curdling threats would be hoist by their own petard. What is commonly overlooked is that numerically most people arrested for ‘blasphemy' are nominally at least Muslims. Anyone who is familiar with the myriad of sects and ‘alternative' beliefs here in Pakistan amongst people claiming to be Muslims would know some of them not only pretty ‘far out', but clearly beyond the pale. Islam in Pakistan is not a monolithic block by any means. It is one of the most fragmented to be found anywhere. In this vast variation of ‘belief' (all of which are claimed to be ‘the one true belief' by the respective adherents), what ‘version' of Sharia or Islam would be used by the law? Nominally that's easy to answer, the law would rely on the Quran and Hadith, but which ‘interpretation' of the Quran, and which Hadith, because people here differ wildly on what they believe and practice, and are quite happy to kill each other over these beliefs and practices. If you haven't picked up a newspaper or watched the news ever at any time in your life, it happens very often here to the point of it being some how ‘normal' and expected.

I can guarantee you therefore that should the law be applied properly a lot of people currently making a lot of noise would find themselves on the wrong side of it. Then what? Would they be so eager then?