|
Though billed as something
that was part of a series of issues discussed in New Delhi, the recent (August) Japanese talks on strengthening its defence
relationship with India will not have gone unnoticed in Beijing. In fact the talks will only have strengthened the notion
that Japan, along with America, Australia, and India is slowly securing the building blocks of an alliance that seeks to encircle
and counterbalance the power of China. This was what China suspected when the group of four (now dubbed the ‘Quadrilateral
Initiative’, or the ‘Quad’), met for the first time in Manila, May. Though a formal alliance in the form
of NATO is probably very far off, such an alliance will span the whole of the Asia-Pacific littoral taking in that of the
Indian Ocean to the Arabian Gulf. These are the very waters that China itself is increasingly regarding as vital to it economic,
and therefore strategic, well being. Japan and America are the main driving forces behind this new venture. In recent
years there has been somewhat of a military transformation that has taken place with regards to Japan, prompted by the erratic
actions of North Korea and its ‘missile’ and ‘nuclear diplomacy’. The growing power of China has also
not gone unnoticed in Tokyo. Seeing a future with a powerful neighbour on its doorstep with which it has territorial disputes,
Japan has found a natural ally in not only its traditional partner in the Pacific, America (which sees China as its principal
future Asian adversary), but also rising India. Australia has also been drawn into this fledgling agreement, but whereas the
other parties clearly gain from forming a counterweight to China, Australia may stand to lose from any diplomatic or possible
military confrontation. This is because China is one of Australia’s biggest trading partners and the future well being
of the Australian economy is tied very closely with that of China. A steady stream of cargo ships has carried Australia’s
mineral wealth to China to feed its burgeoning economy, and Australia has grown rich in the process. Nevertheless, Australia’s
future strategic security is dependant on sheltering under America’s wing, so Australia is as much a part of this endeavour
as any of the other states. Between them they dominate China’s maritime route to the energy rich Middle East and back,
which has been the scene for China’s ambitious ‘String of Pearls’ policy of establishing naval bases along
the route. In connection with this China’s
navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is undergoing an impressive modernisation that will see it become operationally
capable, as a matter of routine, of deploying far from Chinese shores. This may not be for some time, but that is clearly
where the modernisation process is heading, and the bases that are being slowly established along the route to the Middle
East will significantly add to Chinese power projection capabilities. For the first time this is likely to include a fixed
wing aviation capability and the means to protect it (thanks largely to a new series of highly capable Air Warfare Destroyers
- AWD) as part of a full scale fleet. Furthermore, the renewal and expansion of the submarine arm, not least the nuclear submarines,
is a great cause for concern, especially for America. Though they can obviously operate along the SLOC (Sea Lines Of Communication)
to the Middle East, they pose a significant threat to the USN’s dominance of the Pacific Ocean. In particular, the new
generation of PLAN SSBN, the Type-094, will be able to target much of continental America while still operating close to Chinese
shores. The PLAN modernisation programme is therefore being closely watched by the ‘Quad’ as it is likely to be
the primary force that they come into contact with. Their navies have not been slow to modernise and expand either. The Royal
Australian Navy’s regeneration of its power projection capabilities has been well documented with new AWDs and amphibious
assault ships that could double as light aircraft carriers. The Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSDF) is also steadily
improving its capabilities and this may well include a cautious move towards establishing a nascent carrier, wing albeit in
the form of a pair of helicopter carriers. The USN the dominant maritime force throughout the region, but that has not stopped
it from constantly exploring new ways in which to maintain it pre-eminent position. With regards this region though it is
the Indian Navy (IN) in the ‘Quad’ that seeks to have the most ambitious increase in capabilities. Indian dockyards
are currently at capacity building a new generation of highly capable warships. This includes not only indigenous aircraft
carriers, but also the escorts that will accompany them as they project Indian power beyond the Indian Ocean littoral. However,
a huge boost to IN capabilities will probably be delivered sooner when the ex-Soviet carrier Admiral Gorshkov is delivered
in 2011. However, two major problems
have confronted a renewal and expansion of defence ties amongst the ‘Quad’. Japan has had to make some subtle,
but nonetheless significant, changes to its defence policy that has largely remained defence oriented since it was allowed
to rearm post-WWII. The JMSDF is no longer a force that operates in the north-west Pacific, but it now operates as part of
CTF-150 in the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean albeit in a role that provides logistical support to the other warships in the taskforce.
However, this is a start, and gradually the force is beginning to behave in a more overtly military manner. With regards India,
much has already been done to align its strategic future with America, and hence the other states. After the May 1998 nuclear
tests the American led sanctions that were placed on India seemed to curtail any future strategic co-operation. With the recent
signing of a wide-scale nuclear technology sharing deal between America and India (neatly brushing aside the problem of India
not being a signatory to the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty - NPT) this has been reversed. The importance of this is that
over time India should come to rely on nuclear power for energy production rather than Middle East fossil fuels. Not only
will this, to some extent, reduce Indian dependence on secure SLOC to the Gulf, it sets India on the path to being an even
greater global power, and therefore of greater importance to the fledgling alliance. Another problem has been the past status
of India which was the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement. This body is largely moribund now that the Cold War is long over,
but India has been slow to change its strategic mindset in some respects, even though it welcomes any chance of gaining allies
in its geo-political competition with China. Conversely though New Delhi has been more vocal than Australia in denying that
this new relationship is aimed at containing China, even though it is clear that is precisely the function it serves. Whether
or not this is all the beginnings of a new alliance is open to question, but with a series of major multinational naval exercises
hosted by India that took place in September beginning with Malabar 07-02, (which included the navies of America, Australia,
and Japan), it is very hard to suggest otherwise. An edited version of this article appeared in the November 2007 issue of WIFR.
|
